Pre-industrial societies such as Easter Island (among others) authored their own ecological collapse. Modern industrialists tried to monopolize machine technologies from competitors and workers by force. Ancient Egyptian and Mesopotamia elites jealously guarded know-hows like writing and astronomy as priestly knowledge. Yet, there is another case to be made: new technologies and elite control, environmental damage, and war are as old as humanity itself. Harari argues that AI, cyborgs, bio-engineering (and elite control thereof), climate change, and nuclear war are game changers – and these are indeed profound challenges.
Harari’s second logical shortcoming is another cliché of doomsayers: his insistence that our presumed future problems are radically different from anything we have ever faced. But he seems to think that this time we won’t have much choice. Whoever heard of a social media manager in 1980? Harari himself naturally claims that he does not wish to see the elites oppress everyone (page 80). The discovery of antibiotics was accompanied by the identification of viruses and then of bacteria that became antibiotic resistant. The advent of computers also saw the creation of hackers. The problem with this argument is that historically unanticipated developments have usually disrupted auto-pilot outcomes. In a similar vein Harari assumes that we will remain on auto-pilot and that increasing convergence of big data, artificial intelligence (AI), social psychology algorithms, and large networks will lead to unprecedented elite dominance, manipulation of our feelings (and elections) and mass unemployment. The professor cautioned us that had we listened to the predictions of 19 th century American business prognosticators – who extrapolated from the problems they faced - we would fear the rapid buildup of horse manure as the biggest obstacle to further urban growth. Harari’s take on the future reminds me of one of my first classes in business school. Harari’s first logical shortcoming is an old fallacy: extrapolating future problems from the present.
Sadly, not a single one of Harari’s 21 lessons stands up to serious scrutiny. Behind his style of cool logic and balanced evaluations Harari’s message is an incoherent polemic that verges on the nihilistic and bizarre.
His clever writing almost obscures the logical shortcomings of his arguments. Harari writes with flamboyance and vivid turns of phrase and offers many interesting observations and smart details. Based on the success of his past two books, many are awaiting Harari to tell us how to avoid past mistakes and navigate our future. Yuval Harari joins Steven Pinker and Jordan Peterson in proposing lessons to grapple with the challenges of this century.
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